本期订单量+6.6%放量明显，但发货率-0.23pp、通过发货率-1.50pp双降。17资源机（-2.59pp）、14-17送检（-4.50pp）、17非资源机（-2.27pp）三大场景通过发货率全线下滑，仅14-16长租（+0.65pp）逆势改善。
1. 商家端交易行为：下发率下降
2. 渠道维度：支付宝渠道拖累
3. 续航者工作机发货率下滑
4. 用户端交易行为：无明显恶化
综合结论：通过发货率下降的核心原因是商家下发率下降，叠加支付宝渠道和活动11004/11001/11261的履约问题。建议：①排查商家下发意愿下降原因（库存/利润/人手） ②针对活动11004/11001/11261专项排查商家履约问题 ③优化支付宝渠道商家履约管理。
时效指标：用户半小时申请取消比例57.09%→55.70%（-1.39pp）有所改善，但通过非半小时扣款成功发货率52.88%→49.81%（-3.07pp）、标记率41.46%→38.92%（-2.54pp）双降，承接端持续恶化。
| 指标 | 上期 → 本期 | 判断 |
|---|---|---|
| 有效订单 | 23,934 → 25,517 (+6.6%) | 放量 |
| 通过订单 | 12,278 → 13,582 (+10.6%) | 通过池扩大 |
| 发货率 | 16.24% → 16.01% (-0.23pp) | 下滑 |
| 通过发货率 | 30.16% → 28.66% (-1.50pp) | 下滑 |
| 通过订单半小时申请取消比例 | 51.40% → 50.86% (-0.54pp) | 改善 |
| 通过非半小时申请取消扣款成功发货率 | 52.88% → 49.81% (-3.07pp) | 下滑 |
| 发货租金(万) | 1,650.9 → 1,751.1 (+6.1%) | 收入增长 |
| 场景 | 有效订单(上期→本期) | 通过订单 | 发货率(上期→本期) | 通过发货率(上期→本期) | 发货类型占比(SCM/送检/代发) | 租金(万) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17资源机 | 2,177 → 1,840 (-15.5%) | 839 → 752 | 10.61% → 10.05% (-0.56pp) | 25.86% → 23.27% (-2.59pp) | SCM 6.9%→9.2% | 送检 6.5%→7.6% | 代发 85.3%→81.1% | 135.4 → 108.4 (-19.9%) |
| 14-17送检 | 2,020 → 1,766 (-12.6%) | 989 → 889 | 16.68% → 14.89% (-1.79pp) | 32.96% → 28.46% (-4.50pp) | SCM 32.9%→30.0% | 送检 42.1%→39.5% | 代发 24.6%→30.0% | 150.7 → 115.1 (-23.6%) |
| 17非资源机 | 9,820 → 11,451 (+16.6%) | 4,369 → 5,442 | 13.62% → 13.39% (-0.23pp) | 28.68% → 26.41% (-2.27pp) | SCM 9.3%→9.8% | 送检 12.6%→11.4% | 代发 72.0%→72.1% | 808.5 → 908.0 (+12.3%) |
| 14-16长租 | 7,847 → 8,517 (+8.5%) | 4,635 → 5,148 | 17.11% → 18.02% (+0.91pp) | 28.33% → 28.98% (+0.65pp) | SCM 38.9%→41.6% | 送检 14.0%→11.3% | 代发 43.4%→42.7% | 498.8 → 565.9 (+13.5%) |
| 13长租 | 417 → 411 (-1.4%) | 272 → 268 | 30.94% → 28.22% (-2.71pp) | 42.28% → 39.18% (-3.10pp) | SCM 100.0%→98.3% | 送检 0.0%→0.9% | 代发 0.0%→0.0% | 27.7 → 26.1 (-5.8%) |
| 13短租 | 73 → 69 (-5.5%) | 59 → 61 | 39.73% → 36.23% (-3.49pp) | 47.46% → 39.34% (-8.11pp) | SCM 96.6%→96.0% | 送检 0.0%→0.0% | 代发 0.0%→0.0% | 1.6 → 1.4 (-12.5%) |
| 12以下工作机 | 872 → 806 (-7.6%) | 669 → 625 | 39.11% → 36.97% (-2.13pp) | 47.83% → 44.48% (-3.35pp) | SCM 83.6%→80.2% | 送检 5.0%→5.7% | 代发 0.0%→0.0% | 18.7 → 17.6 (-5.9%) |
| 14~16+17非资源机短租 | 702 → 653 (-7.0%) | 444 → 396 | 19.66% → 20.06% (+0.40pp) | 29.50% → 32.32% (+2.82pp) | SCM 97.8%→91.6% | 送检 0.7%→1.5% | 代发 0.0%→0.8% | 9.0 → 8.6 (-4.4%) |
| 合计 | 23,934 → 25,517 (+6.6%) | 12,278 → 13,582 | 16.24% → 16.01% (-0.23pp) | 30.16% → 28.66% (-1.50pp) | 1,650.9 → 1,751.1 |
| 日期 | 有效订单 | 发货率 | 通过发货率 | 租金(万) | 阶段 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/9 | 3,312 | 16.06% | 30.61% | 231.5万 | 上期 |
| 10/10 | 3,414 | 16.73% | 30.67% | 242.0万 | 上期 |
| 10/11 | 3,142 | 17.00% | 32.59% | 219.2万 | 上期 |
| 10/12 | 3,372 | 16.19% | 30.68% | 228.5万 | 上期 |
| 10/13 | 3,336 | 17.00% | 31.88% | 230.5万 | 上期 |
| 10/14 | 3,449 | 14.18% | 25.51% | 210.1万 | 上期 |
| 10/15 | 3,909 | 16.58% | 29.77% | 289.2万 | 上期 |
| 10/16 | 3,646 | 17.94% | 32.50% | 282.2万 | 本期 |
| 10/17 | 3,323 | 16.40% | 29.36% | 228.0万 | 本期 |
| 10/18 | 3,110 | 15.18% | 27.26% | 201.4万 | 本期 |
| 10/19 | 3,614 | 15.86% | 28.65% | 240.9万 | 本期 |
| 10/20 | 4,066 | 15.74% | 28.54% | 275.9万 | 本期 |
| 10/21 | 3,848 | 16.01% | 28.25% | 271.8万 | 本期 |
| 10/22 | 3,910 | 14.99% | 26.17% | 251.0万 | 本期 |
| 渠道 | 有效订单 | 通过订单 | 发货率 | 通过发货率 | 扣款成功订单占比 | 用户半小时申请取消比例 | 通过订单半小时申请取消比例 | 通过十分钟内交租比例 | 通过非半小时申请取消扣款成功发货率 | 通过非半小时申请取消扣款成功标记率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 支付宝 | 18,913 → 20,490 (+8.3%) | 10,429 → 11,798 (+13.1%) | 17.30% → 16.98% (-0.32pp) | 30.11% → 28.33% (-1.78pp) | 51.77% → 54.53% (+2.76pp) | 57.79% → 56.31% (-1.48pp) | 52.64% → 51.70% (-0.94pp) | 98.65% → 98.44% (-0.21pp) | 53.58% → 50.03% (-3.55pp) | 43.37% → 40.16% (-3.21pp) |
| APP | 2,553 → 2,581 (+1.1%) | 1,249 → 1,255 (+0.5%) | 15.86% → 16.23% (+0.37pp) | 30.98% → 31.00% (+0.02pp) | 50.29% → 56.99% (+6.70pp) | 51.23% → 51.62% (+0.39pp) | 47.14% → 50.60% (+3.46pp) | 96.96% → 96.97% (+0.01pp) | 54.00% → 52.45% (-1.55pp) | 36.86% → 34.47% (-2.39pp) |
| 微信 | 2,266 → 2,286 (+0.9%) | 516 → 473 (-8.3%) | 8.38% → 7.57% (-0.81pp) | 30.62% → 31.29% (+0.67pp) | 53.66% → 60.45% (+6.79pp) | 55.54% → 52.32% (-3.22pp) | 32.18% → 27.98% (-4.20pp) | 97.09% → 97.67% (+0.58pp) | 39.90% → 39.94% (+0.04pp) | 22.31% → 25.07% (+2.76pp) |
| 闲鱼 | 101 → 60 (-40.6%) | 52 → 24 (-53.8%) | 12.87% → 13.33% (+0.46pp) | 25.00% → 29.17% (+4.17pp) | 46.53% → 51.67% (+5.14pp) | 60.00% → 53.33% (-6.67pp) | 45.00% → 40.00% (-5.00pp) | 100.00% → 100.00% (持平) | 50.00% → 50.00% (持平) | 30.00% → 33.33% (+3.33pp) |
| 字节跳动 | 40 → 35 (-12.5%) | 18 → 18 (持平) | 5.00% → 11.43% (+6.43pp) | 5.56% → 22.22% (+16.66pp) | 35.00% → 40.00% (+5.00pp) | 50.00% → 50.00% (持平) | 33.33% → 33.33% (持平) | 100.00% → 100.00% (持平) | 0.00% → 33.33% (+33.33pp) | 0.00% → 33.33% (+33.33pp) |
| 微博 | 33 → 37 (+12.1%) | 6 → 2 (-66.7%) | 9.09% → 2.70% (-6.39pp) | 33.33% → 50.00% (+16.67pp) | 54.55% → 56.76% (+2.21pp) | 50.00% → 50.00% (持平) | 50.00% → 50.00% (持平) | 100.00% → 100.00% (持平) | 50.00% → 50.00% (持平) | 33.33% → 50.00% (+16.67pp) |
| 京东 | 23 → 25 (+8.7%) | 7 → 12 (+71.4%) | 8.70% → 4.00% (-4.70pp) | 28.57% → 8.33% (-20.24pp) | 52.17% → 52.00% (-0.17pp) | 50.00% → 50.00% (持平) | 50.00% → 50.00% (持平) | 100.00% → 100.00% (持平) | 33.33% → 0.00% (-33.33pp) | 33.33% → 0.00% (-33.33pp) |
| H5 | 5 → 3 (-40.0%) | 1 → 0 (-100%) | 0.00% → 0.00% (持平) | 0.00% → 0.00% (持平) | 60.00% → 66.67% (+6.67pp) | 0.00% → 0.00% (持平) | 0.00% → 0.00% (持平) | 0.00% → 0.00% (持平) | 0.00% → 0.00% (持平) | 0.00% → 0.00% (持平) |
| 活动ID | 有效订单 | 通过订单 | 发货率 | 通过发货率 | 租金(万) | 用户半小时申请取消比例 | 通过订单半小时申请取消比例 | 通过十分钟内交租比例 | 通过非半小时申请取消扣款成功发货率 | 通过非半小时申请取消扣款成功标记率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11261 | 9,406 → 11,078 (+17.8%) | 4,100 → 5,131 (+25.1%) | 13.01% → 12.94% (-0.07pp) | 27.85% → 26.10% (-1.75pp) | 745.7 → 855.0 (+14.7%) | 58.5% → 56.8% (-1.7pp) | 53.2% → 51.5% (-1.7pp) | 98.5% → 98.3% (-0.2pp) | 52.8% → 49.2% (-3.6pp) | 42.5% → 39.3% (-3.2pp) |
| 10323 | 9,243 → 9,242 (持平) | 4,924 → 5,039 (+2.3%) | 14.95% → 15.34% (+0.39pp) | 27.27% → 27.27% (持平) | 561.3 → 559.3 (-0.4%) | 55.2% → 54.1% (-1.1pp) | 49.8% → 48.9% (-0.9pp) | 98.2% → 98.1% (-0.1pp) | 52.1% → 49.8% (-2.3pp) | 40.8% → 38.2% (-2.6pp) |
| 11001 | 2,174 → 1,901 (-12.6%) | 1,100 → 989 (-10.1%) | 17.20% → 15.68% (-1.52pp) | 32.91% → 29.12% (-3.79pp) | 154.0 → 117.4 (-23.8%) | 54.8% → 53.2% (-1.6pp) | 50.1% → 48.5% (-1.6pp) | 98.8% → 98.6% (-0.2pp) | 55.2% → 51.8% (-3.4pp) | 44.1% → 40.5% (-3.6pp) |
| 11004 | 876 → 860 (-1.8%) | 651 → 642 (-1.4%) | 35.96% → 31.40% (-4.56pp) | 45.31% → 39.56% (-5.75pp) | 34.8 → 33.5 (-3.7%) | 52.1% → 50.8% (-1.3pp) | 48.5% → 47.2% (-1.3pp) | 99.1% → 98.9% (-0.2pp) | 58.3% → 54.1% (-4.2pp) | 46.8% → 42.3% (-4.5pp) |
| 10751 | 828 → 1,151 (+39.0%) | 621 → 927 (+49.3%) | 26.21% → 27.45% (+1.24pp) | 34.62% → 33.98% (-0.64pp) | 100.2 → 131.8 (+31.5%) | 56.8% → 55.2% (-1.6pp) | 52.1% → 50.8% (-1.3pp) | 98.5% → 98.3% (-0.2pp) | 54.2% → 51.5% (-2.7pp) | 43.5% → 40.8% (-2.7pp) |
| 0 | 523 → 499 (-4.6%) | 282 → 281 (持平) | 27.92% → 30.66% (+2.74pp) | 44.33% → 45.20% (+0.87pp) | 15.9 → 16.2 (+1.9%) | 54.2% → 53.1% (-1.1pp) | 50.1% → 49.2% (-0.9pp) | 98.8% → 98.6% (-0.2pp) | 56.8% → 54.2% (-2.6pp) | 45.5% → 42.8% (-2.7pp) |
| 11222 | 456 → 377 (-17.3%) | 329 → 250 (-24.0%) | 24.78% → 22.02% (-2.76pp) | 33.13% → 32.80% (-0.33pp) | 9.1 → 7.2 (-20.9%) | 55.8% → 54.2% (-1.6pp) | 51.2% → 49.8% (-1.4pp) | 98.5% → 98.3% (-0.2pp) | 53.5% → 50.8% (-2.7pp) | 42.8% → 40.1% (-2.7pp) |
| 10945 | 176 → 158 (-10.2%) | 124 → 126 (+1.6%) | 32.95% → 35.44% (+2.49pp) | 44.35% → 43.65% (-0.70pp) | 6.2 → 6.4 (+3.2%) | 53.8% → 52.5% (-1.3pp) | 49.8% → 48.5% (-1.3pp) | 98.8% → 98.6% (-0.2pp) | 55.2% → 52.8% (-2.4pp) | 44.2% → 41.8% (-2.4pp) |
| 11054 | 50 → 80 (+60.0%) | 40 → 74 (+85.0%) | 38.00% → 28.75% (-9.25pp) | 47.50% → 31.08% (-16.42pp) | 10.7 → 11.5 (+7.5%) | 56.2% → 54.8% (-1.4pp) | 52.1% → 50.8% (-1.3pp) | 98.5% → 98.3% (-0.2pp) | 54.8% → 52.1% (-2.7pp) | 43.8% → 41.2% (-2.6pp) |
| 订单类型 | 有效订单 | 通过订单 | 占比 | 发货率 | 通过发货率 | 租金(万) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 非投放订单 | 19,861 → 21,487 (+8.2%) | 10,364 → 11,617 (+12.1%) | 83.0% → 84.2% (+1.2pp) | 17.04% → 16.74% (-0.30pp) | 31.16% → 29.43% (-1.73pp) | 1,425.1 → 1,533.4 (+7.6%) |
| 投放订单 | 4,073 → 4,030 (-1.1%) | 1,914 → 1,965 (+2.7%) | 17.0% → 15.8% (-1.2pp) | 12.33% → 12.16% (-0.17pp) | 24.76% → 24.07% (-0.69pp) | 225.8 → 217.7 (-3.6%) |
结论：主力活动放量过快，商家承接能力饱和，建议控制11261活动放量节奏，优先保证效率而非单量
现象：有效订单+6.6%放量，但通过发货率-1.50pp（30.16%→28.66%）
业务分析：
履约策略中台行动：
结论：标记率下滑是系统性问题，非单一渠道。建议：①与商运组确认商家是否调整发货流程 ②与产品组确认平台埋点是否有变更 ③排查是否有新商家批量入驻但未培训标记流程
现象：大盘通过非半小时扣款成功标记率-2.54pp（41.46%→38.92%），支付宝/APP/微信三大渠道全线下滑
业务分析：
履约策略中台行动：
结论：京东渠道订单质量严重下滑，需与京东渠道运营确认：①是否调整了用户准入标准 ②是否混入了低质量流量 ③商家反馈京东订单关闭原因。建议暂停京东渠道放量，先排查根因
现象：活动11054（京东）订单量+60%放量，但通过发货率-16.42pp（47.50%→31.08%）
业务分析：
履约策略中台行动：
结论：芝麻代发活动承接能力强，可继续放量。建议：①评估10751活动商家承接上限 ②将部分11261活动订单分流至10751活动 ③监控10751活动商家关闭率变化
现象：活动10751（芝麻代发）订单量+39%大幅放量，通过发货率仅-0.64pp，效率基本稳定
业务分析：
履约策略中台行动：
结论：微信渠道风控通过率下滑，需与风控组确认：①是否调整了微信渠道风控策略 ②是否收紧了微信渠道用户准入标准 ③微信渠道用户质量是否真实下滑。建议：监控微信渠道风控通过率趋势，如持续下滑需调整策略
现象：微信渠道通过订单-8.3%（516→473），是唯一通过订单下滑的主力渠道
业务分析：
履约策略中台行动：
结论：17非资源机订单量+16.6%放量，但通过发货率-2.27pp（28.68%→26.41%），10/22通过发货率跌至23.4%，卡单严重。需排查商家承接能力瓶颈，考虑释放部分商家或优化派单策略
现象：17非资源机有效订单9820→11451（+16.6%），通过订单4369→5442（+24.6%），但发货单1337→1533（仅+14.6%），通过发货率28.68%→26.41%（-2.27pp）
业务分析：
下一步动作：
跨部门协同：
履约策略中台自身建设：
| 指标 | 芝麻 上期 → 本期 | 大盘 上期 → 本期 | 差值 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 有效订单 | 4,070 → 4,999 (+22.8%) | 23,934 → 25,517 (+6.6%) | 增速快16.2pp |
| 通过订单 | 2,437 → 3,288 (+34.9%) | 12,278 → 13,582 (+10.6%) | 增速快24.3pp |
| 发货率 | 18.94% → 18.92% (-0.02pp) | 16.24% → 16.01% (-0.23pp) | +2.91pp |
| 通过发货率 | 30.45% → 27.77% (-2.68pp) | 30.16% → 28.66% (-1.50pp) | -0.89pp |
| 扣款成功订单占比 | 59.24% → 57.93% (-1.31pp) | 51.57% → 55.14% (+3.57pp) | -4.88pp |
| 用户半小时申请取消比例 | 53.96% → 54.68% (+0.72pp) | 57.09% → 55.70% (-1.39pp) | +2.11pp |
| 通过订单半小时申请取消比例 | 51.15% → 51.47% (+0.32pp) | 51.40% → 50.86% (-0.54pp) | +0.86pp |
| 通过十分钟内交租比例 | 98.24% → 97.48% (-0.76pp) | 98.40% → 98.28% (-0.12pp) | -0.64pp |
| 通过非半小时申请取消扣款成功发货率 | 50.57% → 48.24% (-2.33pp) | 52.88% → 49.81% (-3.07pp) | +0.74pp |
| 通过非半小时申请取消扣款成功标记率 | 54.53% → 48.08% (-6.45pp) | 41.46% → 38.92% (-2.54pp) | -3.91pp |
| 指标 | 浙江地区 上期 → 本期 | 大盘 上期 → 本期 | 差值 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 订单量 | 1,268 → 1,342 (+5.8%) | 23,934 → 25,517 (+6.6%) | 占大盘5.3% |
| 发货率 | 27.84% → 28.17% (+0.33pp) | 16.24% → 16.01% (-0.23pp) | +12.16pp |
| 通过发货率 | 44.83% → 44.35% (-0.48pp) | 30.16% → 28.66% (-1.50pp) | +15.69pp |
| 租金(万) | 150.4 → 163.3 (+8.6%) | — | |
| 指标 | 上期 | 本期 | 变化 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 预收订单总量 | 1,004 | 1,210 | +20.5% |
| 发货率 | 3.3% | 2.7% | -0.6pp |
| 占大盘比例 | 4.2% | 4.7% | +0.5pp |
| 风控标签 | 有效订单 | 通过订单 | 发货率 | 通过发货率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 案件回捞通过 | 181 → 112 (-38.1%) | 181 → 112 | 14.92% → 26.79% (+11.87pp) | 14.92% → 26.79% (+11.87pp) |
| 风险专项派单 | 102 → 55 (-46.1%) | 102 → 55 | 17.65% → 21.82% (+4.17pp) | 17.65% → 21.82% (+4.17pp) |
| 电商轻风控s | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 | - → - | - → - |
| 首付通过s | 498 → 391 (-21.5%) | 498 → 391 | 40.96% → 36.06% (-4.90pp) | 40.96% → 36.06% (-4.90pp) |
| 视频回捞s | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 | - → - | - → - |
案件回捞通过（53家商家，112单）：官方严选商城23单(0%)、微选数码10单(0%)、钦楠通讯6单(16.7%)、家祥电子4单(100%)、宇昌电子4单(50%)
风险专项派单（30家商家，55单）：官方严选商城13单(0%)、鹿顺3单(33.3%)、微选数码3单(33.3%)、洁瑜通讯租机3单(33.3%)、佛山老罗数码专营店3单(33.3%)
首付通过s（143家商家，391单）：官方严选商城32单(0%)、槿玥数码9单(22.2%)、庄玺9单(11.1%)、米来电子8单(0%)、鼎信租赁8单(50%)
履约策略中台行动：
| 策略/动作 | 解决的问题 | 数据反馈 | 有效性判断 | 后续处理 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大盘放量 | 订单量增长 | 有效订单+6.6%（23,934→25,517），租金+6.1% | ✅ 有效 | 继续维持放量节奏 |
| 芝麻集中派单 | 渠道质量保障 | 非自营芝麻3,023单/发货率31.13%/通过发货率41.50%，高于大盘+15.12pp/+12.84pp；量增速+17.6%快于大盘+6.6% | ✅ 有效 | 继续维持，芝麻是效率核心支撑 |
| 浙江地域派单 | 本省商家接本省单 | 浙江1,342单/发货率28.17%/通过发货率44.35%，高于大盘+12.16pp/+15.69pp | ✅ 有效 | 继续维持，可考虑扩量至其他省份 |
| 17资源机承接 | 效率企稳 | 量-15.5%，发货率-0.56pp，通过发货率-2.59pp | ❌ 失效 | 排查槿玥等商家发货腰斩原因，评估低效商家汰换 |
| 指标 | 本周实际 | 下周目标 | 目标类型 | 验证方式 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 有效订单 | 25,517 | 26,000+ | 保持增长 | 日均3,700单 |
| 发货率 | 16.01% | 16.5%+ | 修复 | 每日监控 |
| 通过发货率 | 28.66% | 29.5%+ | 修复 | 17资源机/送检场景定向优化 |
| 发货租金 | 1,751.1万 | 1,800万+ | 增长 | 随单量自然增长 |
| # | 动作 | 针对问题 | 执行方式 | 完成时间 | 验证指标 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17资源机效率修复 | 通过发货率-2.59pp，槿玥发货腰斩 | ①排查槿玥数码发货率27.8%→14.5%腰斩原因（货源/意愿/风控）②低效商家（鼎信/庄玺/好年/易选/润航/睿泽，通过发货率<20%）评估减量或汰换 ③高效商家（盈发/迅维28.6%）加量 | 下周三前 | 场景通过发货率回升至25%+ |
| 2 | 14-17送检效率排查 | 通过发货率-4.50pp，下滑幅度最大 | ①按商家拆通过订单取消率，定位失血商家 ②确认是货源质量问题还是商家承接意愿下滑 ③针对性优化 | 下周三前 | 场景通过发货率回升至30%+ |
| 3 | 渠道承接端排查 | 通过非半小时扣款成功发货率-3.07pp、标记率-2.54pp | ①排查商家标记行为变化（是否改直接发货）②确认平台埋点是否变更 ③与商运协同排查商家承接意愿 | 下周五前 | 标记率企稳，发货率回升 |
| 4 | 浙江专项派单扩量评估 | 浙江通过发货率44.35%高于大盘+15.69pp | ①评估浙江商家承接能力上限 ②筛选其他省份试点（广东/江苏等） ③制定扩量方案 | 下周五前 | 浙江订单量1,500+，新增1个试点省份 |
| 协同方 | 需要协助事项 | 当前影响 | 希望完成时间 | 替代方案 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 商运 | 渠道承接端恶化：通过非半小时扣款成功发货率-3.07pp、标记率-2.54pp，商家标记行为持续弱化 | 高质量订单发货转化率下滑，影响大盘通过发货率 | 下周五前 | 先排查商家行为变化，再制定针对性优化方案 |
| 事项 | 具体内容 | 优先级 |
|---|---|---|
| 17资源机效率修复 | 排查槿玥数码发货率腰斩原因（27.8%→14.5%）；低效商家（鼎信/庄玺/好年/易选/润航/睿泽，通过发货率<20%）评估减量或汰换；高效商家（盈发/迅维28.6%）加量 | 🔴 高 |
| 14-17送检效率排查 | 通过发货率-4.50pp下滑幅度最大，按商家拆通过订单取消率，定位失血商家；确认是货源质量问题还是商家承接意愿下滑 | 🔴 高 |
| 渠道承接端排查 | 通过非半小时扣款成功发货率-3.07pp、标记率-2.54pp，排查商家标记行为变化或平台埋点变更 | 🔴 高 |
| 浙江专项派单扩量 | 浙江通过发货率44.35%高于大盘+15.69pp，评估商家承接能力上限；筛选其他省份试点（广东/江苏等） | 🟡 中 |
| 芝麻渠道监控 | 芝麻量增+17.6%、效率高于大盘+12.84pp，继续维持集中派单；监控商家取消占比变化 | 🟡 中 |
| 大盘通过发货率监控 | 17资源机/14-17送检/17非资源机三大场景全线下滑，观察是否为结构性下滑还是短期波动 | 🟡 中 |